Chasing Points: Why Has Defense in The NBA Decreased?

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The other day, I read a story in The Athletic about the NBA’s downfall in viewership. This is what the comments had to say: 

“Interest is absolutely down. The NBA today is beyond boring – a bunch of 7-footers shooting 3s… No offensive strategy. No rebounding. No defense… and that stupid in-season tournament that means absolutely nothing and, worse, includes the awful uniforms and vomit-inducing courts.” (Anonymous)

“Vomit-inducing courts” is a bit dramatic… 

“The product sucks, the culture sucks, the politics of the league and their attitude towards their fan bases sucks.” (Alex E.)

And my personal favorite, short and sweet: 

“Your product stinks Adam. Zero interest!” (Stephen O.)

It is really difficult to pinpoint one reason for the NBA’s recent lack of interest. There are dozens of possible reasons as to why viewership is down– boring games, boring play, lack of rivalry, lack of story, the length of games, number of games, social media highlights that youngsters enjoy more than watching a three-hour game, and more. The list could (but will not) go on.

This article started out as an investigation into the lack of defensive strategy in the NBA, however, it took a life of its own and merged itself with other topics currently plaguing the league. To answer the Defense Question (DQ), I had to look at a variety of data from two different NBA eras. I decided on the 1996-1997 and 2023-2024 season, mainly because 96-97 was the first season the NBA started to record these advanced player and team statistics but also because we are able to see some significant changes from only two decades prior.

Offense and defense

It is important to note that the best offensive teams are not necessarily the best defensive teams. Offensive and defense are two important but very different strategies teams need to employ in order to be great. Some teams are better offensively than defensively, and vice versa.

To measure offense, I used Points Per Game (PPG, for teams and players). While this is not the only scale, I believe it is the most comprehensive measure of offense. However, we will not be looking too comprehensively at PPG or offense in this article.

For defense, I used Defensive Rating (DR, for teams) which represents the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. According to an article written by Nick Ashbourne on RG.com, Possessions = 0.5 × ((Team FGA + 0.4 × Team FTA – 1.07 × Team OREB + Team TOV) + (Opponent FGA + 0.4 × Opponent FTA – 1.07 × Opponent OREB + Opponent TOV)) How did they come to this formula? I’m not sure, but the rest of the article has pretty good insight into measurements and calculations for defense in the NBA, so take a look if you’re interested. For players, I used Defensive Win Shares (DEF WS), which measures a player’s defensive contribution to a team’s win.

Some people claim you can’t analyze defense without watching a game. It is a nuanced measurement that is hard to calculate with just one number. This is true, however, it is also immensely easier to measure defense with a number and since the NBA has been measuring it since 1996, that is what I used.

According to the NBA, the best Defensive Rating teams in the 2023-2024 season were the Timberwolves (108.4), Celtics (110.6), Magic (110.8), Thunder (111.0), and Heat (111.5)– with an average of 110.46. The teams with the best Defensive Rating were the Heat (99.2), Knicks (99.5), Hawks (100.3), Bulls (100.7), and Cavaliers (100.8)– with an average of 100.1. Defensive Rating has decreased by 10.36.

Let’s take a minute to compare the highest Defensive Rating in the 96-97 season to the lowest Defensive Rating in the 23-24 season. In 1997, the highest Defensive Rating came from the San Antonio Spurs with a score of 110.8, which is only 2.4 points less than the lowest Defensive Rating in the 23-24 season. From this number alone we can conclude that defense has gotten worse over the years.

If you’re interested in knowing about offense, here are some statistics. The best PPG teams in the 23-24 season were: Pacers (123.3), Celtics (120.6), Thunder (120.1), Bucks (119), and Hawks (118.3)– with an average of 120.26 points. The teams with the highest PPG in the 96-97 season were the Bulls (103.1), Jazz (103.1), Suns (102.8), Supersonics (100.9), Celtics (100.6)– an average of 102.1 points. While defense has definitely dropped, offense has surely surged by a whopping 18.1 points.

PPG and DEF Ratings Chart 

If you learn by seeing, here is a handy chart and some additional numbers just to hone in on how much defense and offense has changed number-wise.

Individual players 

Looking at Defensive Ratings per team is not enough, we need to analyze individual players on these top defensive teams. In the chart below, you will see the top five Defensive Win Share players from the top five Defensive Rating teams. 

Like Defensive Rating, Defensive Win Shares is controversial because of its simple measurement that might not be accurate as opposed to watching a game. However, these players are all good defensive players. Rudy Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year award winner. Dikembe Mutombo was 96-97 DPOY and had the highest Defensive Win Shares score the same year. 

To clarify, this chart is not intended to compare Dennis Rodman to Chet Holmgren or Tim Hardaway to Rudy Gobert; it is simply a mechanism to measure the change between the top five players in both eras. Like Defensive Rating, player Defensive Win Shares have also dropped over the years. 

From team Defensive Rating and player Defensive Win Shares, we can see there is a significant decrease in defense over the years. Along with that, there is a change in positions from the 96-97 to the 23-24 season. In the 96-97 season there were four Power Forwards, four Centers, seven Shooting Guards, five Point Guards, and five Small Forwards. In the 23-24 season, there were six Power Forwards, six Centers, five Shooting Guards, three Point Guards, and five Small Forwards. There wasn’t a significant change in positions who dominated Defensive Win Shares, however, we can see that the Shooting Guard became less popular and Power Forwards and Centers became more popular. The increase in the Center position made me curious about the position and its role over the years.

The Big Man

The Center position is one of the most important defensive positions in basketball. For reference, 26 Centers have won Defensive Player of the Year while only 16 Shooting Guards, Small Forwards, Point Guards, and Power Forwards. I made the mistake of thinking that the Center (aka, a Big Man) position was dead. However, that is not true. From the 96-97 season to the 23-24 season, there are three more Center positions in the NBA. If this was a ‘dead position’ then we would have seen a greater decrease in the number of players who play Center. Instead, I think the Center position is becoming more well-rounded– meaning Centers have more responsibility on the court.

To understand how the Center position has truly changed, we can look at some statistics that highlight this evolution. In the 96-97 season, each Center attempted an average of seven 3-pointers throughout the entire season. Now, Centers attempt 64 throughout the season– and they are making about 10% more of these shots.

On the other hand, Centers nowadays are attempting about 13 less 2-pointers throughout the entire season, but making 14% more 2-pointers. While they’re shooting less, they’re making more points– meaning their shots are more efficient. On average, modern Centers are making 114 more points throughout the season than their 96-97 counterparts. To add to the increase in points, Centers are making 42 more defensive rebounds but only seven more offensive rebounds. As for defensive measures, Centers are blocking less but stealing the ball a bit more on average. 

The Center position is evolving and we can see that through a change in statistics. One of the most important skills in the NBA these days is scoring points. It doesn’t matter who you are or what position you play but to make it in the NBA, you have to succeed at scoring the most points for your team.

The 3-point increase

In December 2024, there was a discourse behind the decrease in viewership of the NBA. Many fans and players gave their thoughts as to why. LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers believes that it is because of the increase in 3-pointers. More specifically, he said, “Our game—there’s a lot of f***ing threes being shot.”… He said it, not me!

While making a 3-point shot has become the norm, defending the long shot is still increasingly challenging. Last year, The Athletic wrote an article about what players had to say about defending the 3-point shot. In short, it is difficult. Most teams and players gave vague answers about how they attempted to defend a three. Center Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat said he prayed that his opponent didn’t make it. LeBron James said players and teams need to sacrifice certain things. Michael Malone, head coach of the Denver Nuggets, said that defending a 3-point shot is a team effort.

Defense is physically exhausting. Sacrificing your body to block, jump, and steal takes effort. Defense also requires a certain set of skill and body proportions. While not every player might have the natural and necessary body proportions (height, weight, strength, and muscle), many players are able to be taught offensive skills. Defending a 3-point shot is also risky as players can accidentally hand check to give their opponent a chance at three free throws. Hand checking became illegal in the 2000s, creating a more favorable offensive game. 

If making a 3-point shot has become more common and defending the 3-point shot is difficult, that means that offensive points are going to grow and defense is going to wane.

So, what’s the big idea?

Is there no more defense in the NBA? Are games becoming less physical? What are teams prioritizing? What are players sacrificing?

It is true that defense has decreased over the years. Games are getting less physical, there are fewer blocks and only a few more steals. While there was a significant increase in defensive rebounds, there is only a small increase in offensive rebounds. However, the real culprit for these high scoring games is not a lack of defense, but an increase in offense. As mentioned, there has been a shift in what teams deem important. When things take a huge amount of effort and do not produce the best quality results (or if there is something that can produce BETTER results), is when teams and players look to take a different route. Offense is becoming more popular among teams, players, and the media. 

While the audience and players might find the increase in 3-pointers ‘boring,’ I think it is important to note that the 3-point shot is a part of a culture the NBA has created and developed for a long time. Not only for incoming players but also for its current class. The obsession with offense has taken over the NBA. Players such as Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and more have all created what it means to be an elite player: score points. While these players aren’t one trick ponies, they certainly have created an image of what it means to be a good NBA player.

Coaches and players are also realizing that it is difficult to defend against a 3-point shot– which has become increasingly more popular over the years. With less people defending a 3-point shot and more people making 3-point shots, calls for decreased defense and an increased offense. That balance that once coexisted between offense and defense has become tilted to favor offense. While defense continues to be more difficult as teams and players get better at the 3-point shot that is more difficult to defend.

While defense is not dead, it certainly has changed and so has the game of basketball. In a few years, when the NBA has changed once again, fans will be looking back at this era with nostalgia in their eyes for a time in which a half court shot was the most exciting thing that happened in a game.